Global ad spending to reach $1 trillion milestone in 2024 : GroupM report

Global advertising revenues are set to surpass the $1 trillion mark for the first time in 2024, according to GroupM’s latest report. The forecast predicts an increase of 9.5%, bringing total ad spending to $1.04 trillion. By 2025, this figure is expected to climb further to $1.1 trillion. The report highlights a significant shift in the advertising landscape, underscoring the growing dominance of digital platforms, which are projected to capture 72.9% of global ad revenues by 2025 and 76.8% by 2029.

The top five digital advertising platforms, Google, Meta, ByteDance, Amazon, and Alibaba, are anticipated to control more than half of the global ad market in 2024. This concentration underscores the trend that these tech companies continue to shape the future of advertising. Retail media is also set to make significant strides, expected to overtake global TV ad revenues by 2025 with a forecasted total of $176.9 billion, representing 15.9% of total ad spending.

One of the most notable trends is the rapid growth of streaming TV advertising. The report forecasts a 19.3% increase in streaming TV ad revenues in 2025, even as traditional linear TV advertising declines by 3.4%. This shift reflects the changing viewing habits of consumers and the increasing role of digital media in their lives. The report notes that while artificial intelligence (AI) adoption by major platforms has enhanced targeting and measurement capabilities, full reliance on AI-driven ad purchasing is still some way off.

The findings also show that 'pure-play digital advertising,' which encompasses search, retail media, and social media, is set to grow by 12.4% in 2024 and 10% in 2025. This growth outpaces traditional advertising channels, cementing the position of digital as the driving force of the industry. This is reflected in the ad spend predictions for key markets. The US, China, and the UK are expected to remain the top three contributors to ad revenue growth in 2025.

Political advertising in the US has seen a substantial rise, with spending estimated to reach $15.1 billion in 2024, a 30% increase from 2020. The Asia-Pacific region, particularly China, is leading the way in retail media growth, with India expected to see retail media revenue surpass that of search advertising by 2025.

Despite the shift towards digital channels, linear TV is still projected to account for 72.6% of global TV ad revenues in 2025, albeit with a declining share. Streaming services are anticipated to represent 37.5% of US TV ad revenues by 2029, highlighting the ongoing fragmentation of viewing options. The disparity in ad loads, linear TV averages 12 minutes per hour, while streaming services have reduced this to 4–5 minutes,  has sparked questions about the effectiveness of different formats.

Advertisers are also grappling with challenges in maintaining a consistent brand identity across multiple, often fragmented, media platforms. While 2024 marks a milestone in global ad spending, the most compelling aspect of the forecast is the accelerated shift toward digital and retail media channels.

AI's increasing role in advertising, combined with the continued decline of traditional media, suggests that the transformation of the ad industry will only gain momentum. However, geopolitical factors may play a pivotal role in shaping the future of ad spending, particularly in emerging markets. The relationship between the US and China, particularly under the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump, could influence this trajectory. This is especially relevant for regions where retail media is fuelling digital growth and for companies like Temu and Shein that are contributing to robust ad spending.

The GroupM forecast underscores that while 2024’s $1 trillion milestone reflects strong growth, the broader narrative is the shift toward digital platforms and the impact of emerging technologies like AI on the advertising sector.