India's advertising revenue to grow 16.8% in 2023, with digital in lead: GroupM report

GroupM releases a new report, 'This Year Next Year 2022 Global End of Year Forecast,' which includes global as well as regional insights on the advertising world.

GroupM has released its 'This Year Next Year 2022 Global End of Year Forecast' report. As per the study, India's digital advertising has a 48.8% share in 2022 of the overall pie of advertising.

TYNY report says that India's advertising revenue growth forecast for 2022 is 15.8%, with that figure further accelerating to 16.8% in 2023. This growth is led by pure-play digital advertising, which accounts for the largest share (48.8%) in 2022 and is expected to continue rising above pre-pandemic levels.

It further says that retail media in India is forecast at $551 million in 2022 and is expected to nearly double by 2027. TV advertising, representing 36% of advertising market share, is expected to grow 10.8% this year and continue growing double digits, driven by strong growth in both traditional and connected TV.

The report further shares insights on United States, China, Japan, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Canada, Brazil, and Australia.

 Here are some of the highlights of the report: 

• GroupM now expects global advertising to grow 5.9% in 2023, behind the IMF’s expectation for global inflation of 6.5% and a downgrade from our 6.4% June estimate.
• Retail media, one of the fastest-growing segments of the advertising industry, is now estimated to reach $110.7 billion dollars in 2022, an upgrade from our September forecast of $101 billion.
• Television continues its recovery to pre-pandemic levels, albeit more slowly in 2022, with an expected global growth rate of 1.7% (excluding U.S. political advertising).
• Growth in global OOH this year will amount to 2.2% globally (excluding U.S. political spending), or 18.1% on an excluding-China basis.
• Audio is projected to grow 3.8% globally in 2022 (excluding U.S. political advertising) and decelerate to 1.3% growth in 2023
• After a brief respite in 2021, traditional print continues its decline of 7.4% in 2022. Print-based media will decline by 3.7% when including digital extensions, which are forecast to make up nearly half of total revenue this year and more than three-quarters of revenue by 2026.

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Top 10 Market Highlights:

United States: Advertising on pure-play digital platforms, despite decelerating growth in 2022, continues to increase its share and will account for two-thirds of total ad revenue within the next two years.

China: China has seen far greater economic impact from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2022 than was expected at the outset of the year. This acted as a drag on consumption and ultimately led to our lowered forecast of -0.6% growth of advertising revenue in 2022.

Japan: For 2022, we estimate Japanese advertising revenue will grow 7%, with that figure decelerating to 4.4% in 2023. This growth is led by pure-play digital advertising, which accounts for the largest share (57.9%) in 2022 and is expected to continue rising above pre-pandemic levels.

United Kingdom: Digital pure-play platforms, a medium set to account for 80% of total ad revenue this year will grow 11%, outpaced by retail media (a subset of digital), which we forecast will reach £6.5bn by 2027.

Germany: Within digital advertising budgets, retail media will play an increasingly important role in 2023, with growth forecasts of 13% in line with the broader digital channel, while search will grow slightly faster at 15%.

France: We anticipate a deceleration of growth in 2023 to 6.3% with a focus on media that delivers short term efficiency and return on investment. As a result, 100% of the estimated growth is expected to be in digital media, particularly performance-based media and retail.

Canada: Advertising revenue in Canada is forecasted to grow 5.8% during 2022, with that figure further accelerating to 8% in 2023. This growth is led by pure-play digital advertising, which accounts for the largest share (72.8%) in 2022 and is expected to continue rising above pre-pandemic levels.

Brazil: Retail media, a subset of digital revenue, is forecast at more than $170 million in 2022 and is expected to grow 18% in 2023, following 25% growth in 2022.

Australia: TV will grow 3.7% in 2022 driven by connected TV. While linear TV will increase in 2022, it may be the last year of expansion as connected TV takes over a larger share TV revenue. Total TV in 2023 is expected to record a small overall decline of 0.2%