What does Trump’s return mean for AI’s future?

The 2024 U.S. presidential election took an unexpected turn when tech billionaire Elon Musk, known for his often controversial stances, publicly endorsed and campaigned for Donald Trump. It was an eyebrow-raising moment: a tech magnate embroiled in consistent battles in matters related to technology and AI development, throwing his weight behind a businessman known for his unpredictable relationship with Silicon Valley. However, as the votes came in and Trump secured a win, the tech industry is now watching in anticipation. 

Musk's support for Trump isn’t as unlikely though. Musk has been a fierce advocate for technological advancement (he co-founded OpenAI, the parent to ChatGPT) with cautious regulation. He likely saw an alignment with Trump’s past AI initiatives, which aim to make America the leader in AI development, light regulations, and fostering innovation. 

Campaigning for Trump worked in his favour. Musk's strategic move led to a surge in Tesla stocks making him richer by $50 billion. Not just Musk, several tech giants have benefitted from Trump’s win. The likes of Google and Nvidia have seen a jump in their stocks of over 6% while Amazon, Microsoft and more have observed a jump of over 4%. Since November 6. The markets might have reacted swiftly, however, tech leaders are approaching this win with caution, especially since Trump’s policies have often clashed with them. What does Trump’s return to the White House mean for the trajectory of tech giants and AI?

Trump’s stance on AI 

AI policies during Donald Trump's first tenure as President from 2017 to 2021 were designed to bolster U.S. competitiveness in technology and maintain its leadership on the global stage. 

His need for the US to lead might be mainly because he sees China as a threat. In a podcast, he mentioned that “we (America) have to take the lead over China.” 

His AI-related policies and initiatives during his first tenure include ‘The American AI Initiative (2019)’ focusing on US leadership in AI development, prioritising and funding AI research and development through federal agencies. His administration also highlighted the impact of AI on the job market and the initiative aimed to prepare the workforce for the AI-driven economy.

Trump has also increased federal investments in AI research. His administration's budget proposals included increased funding for agencies like the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), mainly in AI research and development.

Additionally, Trump's policies focused on forming international dialogues and alliances with like-minded nations to counter the influence of China. He has contributed to the development of global AI principles, including the G7 and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) guidelines which aimed at ensuring that AI development is ethical, transparent, and accountable.

Additionally, Trump’s administration favoured minimal regulations in AI. This won’t work in favour of Joe Biden’s AI policies. During his election campaign, Trump pledged to repeal the Biden administration's order on artificial intelligence. The U.S. AI Safety Institute (AISI) is an institution created by the Biden Administration in November for AI safety. Its primary goal is to conduct research, develop safety standards, and provide guidance on mitigation of the potential harms of AI, including issues related to bias, fairness, accountability and transparency.

Considering Trump’s controversial personal stance of bias towards minority groups, AI’s currently faulty work in accurate representation might not be his administration’s concern. The 2024 Republican platform criticises Biden’s order on AI as ‘dangerous,’ claiming it stifles innovation and imposes ‘radical leftwing ideas’ on AI development. Trump publicly stated that he would eliminate the order on his first day in office, aligning with Republican views that AI development should prioritise ‘free speech and human flourishing’.   

Trump has himself been a victim of deepfakes but with his attention towards ‘free speech’, he has participated in deepfake use during the election campaign. 

Trump’s return to office could mean an emphasis on strengthening the U.S. position as a global leader in AI and light regulations that could spark debates about ethics and job impacts. Additionally, it could also affect tech companies. While CXOs of tech giants congratulated the businessman on his presidential win, they have often clashed with Trump.

Trump’s love-hate relationship with tech giants

Donald Trump's history with tech companies is complicated. During his first tenure, he frequently accused social media platforms like Twitter, Facebook, and Google of political bias by censoring conservative voices. He claimed they were suppressing right-wing viewpoints, which led to him signing an executive order in May 2020 on Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act. This act shields tech companies from liability for user-generated content and Trump aimed to limit these legal protections.

His administration also clashed with matters related to antitrust issues. The Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission launched investigations into the business practices of Google, Facebook, Amazon, and Apple. He often singled out Amazon and Jeff Bezos, accusing them of exploiting tax loopholes and competing unfairly and attacked The Washington Post (owned by Bezos) for its coverage of his presidency.

Previously, Trump also attempted to ban TikTok, which might be set in stone now that he has been re-elected. His controversial opinions also got him banned from X (formerly Twitter) in 2021, later being welcomed back once Musk took control of the micro-blogging platform. 

Challenges and Opportunities Ahead

While his win has prompted tech companies to feel optimistic, albeit with slight caution, Trump’s stance on overreliance on China could pose problems for tech companies. China plays a huge role in research and development and manufacturing products for companies like Apple. Trump could double on tariffs imposed which could be harmful for companies reliant on China. 

Additionally, the administration's stance on regulations could accelerate innovation but may also lead to ethical concerns. Michael Kratsios, Trump’s former Chief Technology Officer, once emphasised a ‘trustworthy AI’ that aligns with American values, yet, striking the balance between rapid innovation and ethical oversight remains a grey area.

Further, social and environmental considerations could take a backseat under Trump. He has often shown scepticism toward climate change and complex global issues. Considering AI development and model training can lead to harmful effects on natural resources like fresh water, this is concerning.

Globally, Trump’s AI policies could reshape international collaboration. The administration’s cautious stance on partnerships, shaped by concerns over intellectual property and security, may limit cooperative research but push other nations to advance their capabilities. 

Elon Musk once said that AI development can prove to be more dangerous than nukes (nuclear weapons). With Donald Trump’s return to the White House, there could be an acceleration in AI innovation, all while raising important questions about ethics and intense scrutiny of the tech industry, potentially proving Musk right.